Do you believe being a child prodigy—someone exceptionally talented from an early age—would bring you happiness? Perhaps you do, or perhaps you do not. Society often assumes that being gifted leads to success, and success ensures a fulfilling, happy life. But does being gifted truly guarantee future success?

There are two approaches to addressing this inquiry. One method involves examining the accomplishments of gifted children. A study conducted in the mid-1980s focused on adults who had attended New York City's prestigious Hunter College Elementary School, established in the 1920s to nurture America's future intellectual elite, accepting only children with IQs of 155 and higher. However, the outcomes for these Hunter College child prodigies were not exceptional; they turned out to be merely satisfactory. Three decades later, these graduates were generally thriving, well-adjusted, and content. Many held good jobs and possessed advanced degrees. Surprisingly, none ascended to the roles of CEOs of major corporations, influential politicians, celebrated authors, or Nobel laureates; there were no individuals who attained national recognition in their respective domains. While they were child geniuses, they did not evolve into genius adults. A similar trend was observed in Ontario, Canada, during the 1970s, where an elementary school boasted a group of elite runners. Research conducted a decade later revealed that from the 15 nationally-ranked runners aged 13 and 14, only one managed to become a top competitor by the age of 24.

At just 24 years old, Doug Consiglio, once considered a poor runner in his youth, achieved the status of the top runner. As a teenager at 14, his peers questioned his dedication, asking, "Why does he even try?" Another way to examine precocity is to reflect on renowned adults by investigating their childhoods. Several studies have adopted this perspective, revealing a consistent trend. One study involving 200 successful adults discovered that only 34 percent were regarded as precocious in their youth. Furthermore, many historical geniuses, such as Copernicus, Rembrandt, Bach, Newton, Beethoven, Kant, and Leonardo da Vinci, were quite unremarkable as children. In fact, none of these notable figures would have qualified for Hunter College Elementary School. These findings highlight that the topic of precocity is more complex than commonly assumed. The advantages of mastering skills early are frequently exaggerated. Numerous individuals either began their journeys with promise and later faltered or started off poorly and ultimately thrived.

The early development of skills, often referred to as precocity, can be a deceptive sign of future success. When we label a child as precocious, we usually have an imprecise understanding of what that entails. Typically, it indicates that an individual possesses an exceptional degree of intellectual or physical capability for their age. However, achieving success as an adult relies on more than just this talent. Our fixation on precocity leads us to overemphasize the significance of innate ability. In reality, focused and deliberate practice toward a specific goal is far more crucial than simply being naturally gifted. For instance, when we describe a remarkable musician as having natural talent, we do not consider whether they practice extensively, desire to practice, or enjoy practicing. Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart is often cited as a child prodigy who demonstrated remarkable musical talent at a young age. He began composing at four and performed across Europe by six alongside his father, Leopold. This makes him a quintessential example of a precocious child. Nonetheless, the narrative surrounding Mozart is flawed. Notably, the music he created at four lacks quality, consisting mainly of adaptations of other composers' works.

Suspiciously, the accounts of Wolfgang's early achievements were documented by his father. Leopold resembled a contemporary parent determined to catapult their child to fame. In fact, the legendary talent attributed to young Mozart was likely embellished by his father's possible misinformation about his age. Rather than being solely innate musical talent, Mozart's extraordinary ability can be largely ascribed to relentless practice. From the age of three, he was mandated to practice for three hours daily, and by six, he had accumulated an impressive 3,500 hours of practice—three times more than his peers. Therefore, Mozart's reputed musical precocity stemmed not just from natural talent but also from hard work, environmental factors, and a father who insisted on discipline. In contrast, a more fitting illustration of true precocity could be found in the renowned late-bloomer, Einstein. One biographer noted that Einstein showed no exceptional intelligence as a child. His accomplishments appeared to arise from specific habits and qualities—curiosity, determination, and resilience. While these traits may not seem particularly remarkable, they arguably represent the fundamental elements of genius.

Research on precocity indicates that a child who demonstrates early talent may not necessarily develop into a successful adult. Similarly, an accomplished adult may not have shown signs of precocity in childhood. Predictions regarding adult achievement cannot be reliably based on fixed characteristics like IQ or early skill development. Rather, significant predictors of adult success are often dynamic traits such as creativity, perseverance, and leadership. Therefore, to assess whether a 14-year-old runner will excel at age 24, it is essential to wait a decade to evaluate their true accomplishments and success in running.